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Homeownership less affordable in fourth quarter

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Market Data
Tuesday, January 11, 2022
Median-priced single-family homes were less affordable in the fourth quarter compared with historical averages in 77 percent of counties across the nation analyzed by ATTOM for its fourth-quarter 2021 U.S. Home Affordability Report. That’s way up from 39 percent of counties in the fourth quarter of 2020, to the highest point in 13 years, as home prices continue rising faster than wages throughout much of the country.

Compared with historical levels, median home prices in 440 of the 575 counties analyzed in the fourth quarter of 2021 were less affordable than past averages. That’s up from 428 in the third quarter and from 224 year-over-year, an increase that has continued as the median national home price has shot up 17 percent over the past year to a record high of $317,500.

“The average wage earner can still afford the typical home across the United States, but the financial comfort zone continues shrinking as home prices keep soaring and mortgage rates tick upward,” ATTOM Chief Product Officer Todd Teta said in a release. “Historically low rates and rising wages are still big reasons why workers can meet or come very close to standard lending benchmarks in a majority of counties we analyze. But the portion of wages required for major ownership expenses nationwide is getting closer to levels where banks become less likely to offer home loans. Amid very uncertain times, with the pandemic again threatening the economy, we will keep watching this key measure of housing market stability.”

Despite the continued decline in historic affordability, major homeownership expenses on typical homes still are affordable to average local wage earners in about half of the 575 counties in the report. The largest are Cook County (Chicago), Ill.; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Dallas County, Texas; Bexar County (San Antonio), Texas, and Wayne County (Detroit), Mich.

The most populous of the 279 counties where major expenses on median-priced homes were unaffordable for average local workers in the fourth quarter Los Angeles County, Calif; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Ariz.; San Diego County, Calif.; Orange County, Calif. (outside Los Angeles) and Miami-Dade County, Fla.

Median single-family home prices in the fourth quarter were up by at least 10 percent year-over-year in 368, or 64 percent, of the 575 counties included in the report. Among the 43 counties with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year gains in median prices were in Middlesex County (outside Boston), Mass. (up 42 percent); Wake County (Raleigh), N.C. (up 27 percent); Maricopa County (Phoenix), Ariz. (up 26 percent); Hillsborough County (Tampa), Fla. (up 26 percent) and Clark County (Las Vegas), Nev. (up 23 percent).

Counties with a population of at least 1 million where median prices decreased year-over-year, or went up by the smallest amounts, are Wayne County (Detroit), Mich. (-12 percent); Cook County (Chicago), Ill. (-3 percent); Kings County (Brooklyn), N.Y. (2 percent); Dallas County, Texas (5 percent) and Contra Costa County, Calif. (outside San Francisco) (6 percent.)

Home-price appreciation was greater than weekly wage growth in the fourth quarter in 447 of the 575 counties analyzed (78 percent), with the largest including Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Ariz.; San Diego County, Calif.; Orange County, Calif. (outside Los Angeles) and Miami-Dade County, Fla.

Average annualized wage growth outpaced home-price appreciation in 128 counties (22 percent), including Los Angeles County, Calif.; Cook County, (Chicago), Ill.; Dallas County, Texas; Kings County (Brooklyn), N.Y., and King County (Seattle), Wash.

The annual wages required to afford typical homes are all on the east or west coasts, led by New York County (Manhattan), N.Y. ($274,679); San Mateo County (outside San Francisco), Calif. ($252,589); San Francisco County, Calif. ($251,054); Santa Clara County (San Jose), Calif. ($229,301) and Marin County (outside San Francisco), Calif. ($223,713).

The lowest annual wages required to afford a median-priced home in the fourth quarter were in Schuylkill County, Pa. (outside Allentown) ($10,927); Bibb County (Macon), Ga. ($16,483); Cambria County, Pa. (outside Pittsburgh) ($17,784); Macon County (Decatur), Ill. ($19,317) and Blair County (Altoona), Pa. ($20,363).

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