There were an estimated 35.2 percent more home sellers than buyers in the housing market in August (or 505,915 more), according to a new report from Redfin. June 2025 is the only month in records dating back to 2013 when sellers outnumbered buyers by a greater percentage — 36.3 percent. In other words, this summer was the strongest buyer’s market on record.
Many Americans have been priced out of the housing market — mortgage rates are falling but remain more than double their pandemic low, while home prices continue to climb, albeit at a much slower pace than in recent years, according to Redfin.
Redfin estimates the number of buyers using proprietary data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to close of purchase, and multiple listing service (MLS) data on active listings and pending sales. The estimated number of sellers in the market is the number of active listings in the MLS. Redfin defines a market where there are over 10 percent more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10 percent fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market.
There were an estimated 1.44 million homebuyers in the housing market in August — the lowest level in records dating back to 2013 aside from the onset of the pandemic, when the housing market ground to a halt.
The housing market has been shedding homebuyers due to rising home prices and high mortgage rates. But mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks, trimming hundreds of dollars off of monthly payments for homebuyers and fueling an uptick in refinancing activity among existing homeowners.
“We haven’t yet seen a big jump in homebuyer demand due to declining mortgage rates,” Redfin Head of Economics Research Chen Zhao said in a release. “Buyers may show up in greater numbers if mortgage rates keep falling, which could happen if the economy continues to weaken. If the economy slows further, the Fed may cut rates more than expected, but the catch is that a slowing economy could push the U.S. into a recession.”
The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate sat at 6.26 percent as of mid-September — the lowest level in roughly a year. Redfin agents say that if mortgage rates drop below 6 percent, “a critical mass” of homebuyers may return to the market. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate on Sept. 17, but that was already priced into mortgage rates. Markets currently anticipate two more 25-basis-point cuts this year. Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to remain steady in the near term as market participants await further economic data, particularly the next jobs report on Oct. 3.
Sellers continue to outnumber buyers, but sellers have noticed homebuyers retreating and have started retreating in response, according to Redfin. There were an estimated 1.94 million home sellers in the housing market in August — the lowest level since January. That’s down from a peak of 1.99 million in May. This means the housing market has shed roughly 50,000 sellers over the past three months.
Some sellers are delisting after watching their homes sit on the market for months with zero bites from buyers, while others are opting not to list at all after seeing their neighbor’s house sell for under the asking price.