Investor home purchases were up 1 percent year-over-year in the third quarter, coming in at a total of roughly 52,000, according to Redfin.
Investor activity has flattened for the same reason the housing market as a whole is stagnant: Today’s market conditions are essentially the opposite of those that fueled the pandemic investment boom, and the environment means many buyers are priced out of the market. Investors face additional roadblocks, including less potential to make a profit by flipping or renting out a property.
“Investor activity is stuck in neutral because profits are harder to come by, more homes are selling at a loss, and the rental market has softened,” Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari said in a release. “Investors aren’t completely retreating, but they’re not driving the housing market forward.”
Real estate investors purchased 17 percent of homes that sold in the third quarter, up marginally from 16 percent a year earlier.
The mostly unchanged investor market share signals that the sluggishness of investor activity mirrors that of the larger homebuying market. Overall existing home sales are posting roughly the same modest increase as investor purchases.
There are several forces converging to keep the investor market flat:
- Still-high home prices and elevated mortgage rates mean both flippers and landlords are paying more upfront while earning smaller yields. Even all-cash investors are facing a tough equation because investors often take out other types of loans.
- Nationwide, 8 percent of homes investors offloaded in the third quarter sold at a loss — up from 6.5 percent a year earlier and the highest level in more than two years. The typical investor earned $182,688 in capital gains via selling a home, down roughly 1 percent year-over-year. Compare that to late 2020 and early 2021, when investor capital gains were posting double-digit increases.
- Investors aren’t expecting the double-digit appreciation common during the pandemic homebuying boom. With home values flattening in many markets — and falling in some — speculative buying has less upside.
- Rent growth has cooled, and vacancies are rising. That makes rental properties less attractive, especially for landlords hoping to earn money instantly. The short-term rental market has cooled in some areas, too, due to tightened regulations.
- Economic uncertainty, including tariffs, geopolitical volatility, and a weakening labor market, makes investors cautious — because they’re holding tight to their own pocketbooks, and they’re concerned about less homebuying and renting demand.
While investor purchases are sluggish, they aren’t falling, according to Redfin. There are a few reasons for that. Last year, investor purchases were sitting at an eight-year low; there wasn’t much room for them to fall. Secondly, long-term investors who plan to hold assets for a long time are less deterred by high prices and rates because they’re betting home values and rents will rise. And third, some investors are more likely to buy up properties when the market is slow because there’s less competition and they may find deals.
Investors bought 1 percent more single-family homes than a year earlier, while they purchased 1 percent fewer condos and 4 percent fewer townhouses.
Investor purchases of condos have been sitting near a decade-low for the last two years, and they continue to do so. The small year-over-year decline understates how few condo investors are buying, according to Redfin.
Condos aren’t as attractive to investors as they used to be for several reasons: Many condo buildings are seeing surges in HOA fees and special assessments, condos are an increasingly risky investment — especially in places like Florida and Texas where they’re vulnerable to climate disasters — and condo values are falling in some parts of the country. Additionally, many investors buy condos to rent them out, and slowing rent growth, rising vacancies, and HOA-driven rental restrictions are making becoming a landlord less attractive than it used to be.
Redfin agents say rising HOA fees are making it quite difficult for investors to justify buying a condo as an investment property. The extra monthly fees often mean the math doesn’t work out in the investor’s favor.
Breaking investor purchases down by price also paints a fairly stagnant picture. Purchases of high-priced homes rose 3 percent from a year earlier and purchases of low-priced homes increased 1 percent. Investors bought 3 percent fewer mid-priced homes.
In Las Vegas, investor purchases fell 20 percent year-over-year in the third quarter — the biggest decline among the metros in this analysis.
The next-biggest declines were all in Florida: Investor purchases fell 18 percent in Orlando, 14 percent in Miami, as well as Fort Lauderdale. Investors have been retreating from Florida for years because the Sunshine State’s housing market has been suffering from dropping prices, high inventory, surging HOA fees and rising insurance costs.
On the flip side, investor purchases rose most on the West Coast, led by Seattle (37 percent) and San Francisco (29 percent). Next come Milwaukee (28 percent), Newark, N.J. (28 percent) and Portland, Ore. (28 percent).