There are an estimated 1.9 million home sellers in the housing market and an estimated 1.5 million homebuyers, or 33.7 percent more sellers than buyers, according to a new report from Redfin. There are . At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers by this large of a number or percentage. A year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by 6.5 percent, and two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers.
There haven’t been this many home sellers since March 2020, according to Redfin. There haven’t been this few buyers at any point in records dating back to 2013 aside from April 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a halt.
The most recent data point in Redfin’s analysis is April 2025. The estimated number of sellers in the market is the number of active listings in the MLS. To estimate the number of buyers, Redfin created a model that uses data on pending sales and the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to their purchase.
Redfin earlier this month predicted that home prices will drop 1 percent year-over-year by the end of 2025, and the growing imbalance between buyers and sellers is the basis for that prediction. When sellers are competing for a small pool of buyers, that indicates a buyer’s market. In a buyer’s market, home prices can fall because buyers have negotiating power.
Sellers outnumber buyers for several reasons, according to Redfin:
- It’s expensive to buy a home: High home prices and mortgage rates are scaring buyers off. The median home sale price rose 1.6 percent year-over-year to $431,931 in April. That’s the slowest growth in nearly two years, but monthly housing payments still hit a record high last month because mortgage rates and prices remain elevated. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.73 percent in April — more than double the record low hit during the pandemic.
- Economic uncertainty: Tariff talks, layoffs and federal policy changes are among the other factors dampening homebuyer demand. A recent Redfin survey found that nearly 1 in 4 Americans is scrapping plans to make a major purchase due to tariffs.
- The mortgage rate lock-in effect is easing: Homeowners who have been sitting on ultra-low mortgage rates they scored during the pandemic are now giving up those low rates and selling their homes. That’s because for most people, it’s not realistic to stay put forever; job changes, return-to-office mandates and divorce force people to move. The idea of taking on a higher mortgage rate also isn’t as shocking as it was when rates first skyrocketed in 2022.
“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall. Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar,” Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said in a release. “But as sellers see their homes sit longer on the market and notice fewer buyers coming through on tour, more of them will realize that the market has adjusted and reset their expectations accordingly.”
Sellers are already gaining more data points on this front, and will likely face another reality check in the summer, when demand typically starts to slow. More than two of every five (44 percent) home listings in April had been on the market for 60 days or longer — the highest April share since 2020.
Stale inventory is piling up in part because many sellers are overpricing their homes, using sky-high comps from the recent seller’s market that aren’t realistic today. In some cases, sellers are pricing high because they bought at the peak of the market and are trying to recoup their investment.
For sellers, time is not on their side, according to Redfin. If they are considering selling, they should do it sooner rather than later because home prices in their area may fall. If their home is already on the market and has been sitting for over a month, they may want to consider an improvement to their property or a reduction in price.
A change in the balance of buyers and sellers is a signal of what’s to come with home prices, according to Redfin. Aside from the onset of the pandemic, the last time sellers significantly outnumbered buyers was around the time mortgage rates jumped in 2018.
In November 2018, the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate peaked at 4.87 percent, which was the highest level in nearly eight years and almost a full percentage point higher than a year earlier. One month later, sellers outnumbered buyers by 9.4 percent — the largest percentage since 2015 and a reversal from the prior year, when buyers outnumbered sellers. Three months later, home-price growth shrunk to the lowest level in at least six years, with prices rising 2 percent from a year earlier to $283,912.
Today, the imbalance between buyers and sellers is even greater, meaning there’s more pressure on prices. Annual price growth has already slowed to 1.6 percent from 6.2 percent last spring, and Redfin expects this trajectory to continue, ultimately causing prices to fall. The last time home prices posted a year-over-year decline was 2023.