October Research, LLC will host a webinar June 17 at 2 p.m. (ET) titled “Q2 Economic Outlook featuring Moody’s Analytics.” Economist Shandor Whitcher will present a complimentary 30-minute program examining the trends expected to shape the housing market in the second half of 2026.
Some of the topics to be covered during this latest economic forecast will include geopolitical developments shaping the housing market, interest rate expectations, mortgage performance, consumer affordability, buyer demand, construction activity and housing inventory.
We were able to catch up with Whitcher ahead of his presentation to get his thoughts on the housing market.
Q Are we seeing an uptick in mortgage delinquencies or foreclosures, and how do current default rates compare to historical norms?
Though they have risen over the past few years, mortgage delinquency rates remain at or near 2019 levels, and encouragingly, the pace of increase has slowed. The delinquency rate on mortgages is only rising 7 bps year-on-year, down from a peak rate of increase of 56 bps earlier this year. Foreclosure rates are slightly higher than 2019, but remain historically low, and are trending lower.
Q With home prices hovering at elevated levels, what is the average payment-to-income ratio for first-time buyers, and are wages keeping pace?
Mortgage payments as a share of incomes have trended lower in recent years, falling from a peak of 27.8 percent in late 2023 to 23.7 percent. in May of this year. Growth in house prices has been modest, with the median price of an existing single-family home climbing just 1.3 percent year-over-year, compared to year-ago wage growth of 3.5 percent. This has supported improvements in affordability on a trend basis.
Q. How are potential buyers reacting to elevated interest rates? Are we seeing a shift in preference toward Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs), smaller homes, or alternative living arrangements?
The largest impact has been to keep buyers sidelined and to push buyers into more affordable segments of the housing market. Existing home sales remain depressed and the fastest-growing house prices in recent years have been among the most affordable homes. The share of mortgage applications with ARM terms has increased slightly in recent years but remains a small fraction of the market.
Learn more during his presentation. Click here to register for this webinar.