While trade policies are crafted in Washington, D.C., their effects are felt closer home and do not impact all 50 states equally, according to an analysis by a National Association of Realtors (NAR) economist.
NAR Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research Nadia Evangelou said some states have built their economies around global exports as they ship cars, chemicals, or electronics to buyers worldwide.
Other states import large amounts of goods, such as car parts, that join local industries and supply chains. For example, Evangelou said, Texas exports “a significant amount” of oil and gas, while Michigan is closely tied to auto manufacturing.
States often have different key trading partners. Texas and Arizona are heavily integrated with Mexico, while the West Coast engages in more trade with Asia, Evangelou noted.
“Thus, understanding which states are most reliant on trade can help explain everything from warehouse demand and factory job growth to how sensitive an area might be to supply disruptions or price changes,” Evangelou said.
The NAR analysis examined each state’s exports and imports relative to its gross domestic product (GDP).
Export-heavy states
Here are the states that stood out on the export side of the equation:
- Louisiana leads the nation with 26.5 percent of its state GDP coming from exports. The state’s energy and chemical industries drive this activity, with massive quantities shipped through its ports. China, Mexico, and the Netherlands each receive more than $5 billion in Louisiana products.
- Texas has 16.8 percent of its GDP coming via exports. The state primarily exports its oil, gas, chemicals, and tech products. With strong infrastructure and international connections, Texas is a major export hub. Its top partners include Mexico, Canada, and the Netherlands, with export values exceeding $30 billion for each of these countries.
- Kentucky is just behind Texas at 16.3 percent. The state exports a significant number of cars and aerospace parts. Major companies such as Toyota and GE Aviation operate there. The primary partners are Canada, the U.K., and France, with over $4.5 billion in exports to each country.
- Indiana (11.4 percent), South Carolina (10.9 percent), Oregon (10.3 percent), and Michigan (8.7 percent) also have strong export profiles, specializing in pharmaceuticals, car parts, semiconductors, and more.
Evangelou noted large states like New York (4 percent), Florida (4.2 percent), and California (4.5 percent) rank lower on the export spectrum because their economies are driven more by services in finance, tourism, and entertainment.
Import-heavy states
Imports include goods coming into the country, ranging from car parts to consumer electronics and machinery.
“Imports aren’t technically counted as part of GDP,” Evangelou said. “They are actually subtracted from the formula used to estimate GDP. However, comparing imports to state GDP can provide insight into how much a state relies on foreign goods for its economy.”
Here are the states that rely the most on imports:
- Kentucky has imports equal to 32.3 percent of its GDP. The state is deeply integrated into the global market — especially in pharmaceuticals and automotive industries. Its top import partners are Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
- Michigan (24.5 percent) and Indiana (20.2 percent) follow in the Midwest, with their numbers highlighting how essential imported parts are for car production and industrial output.
- Tennessee (21.9 percent) and Georgia (16.5 percent) are right behind those Midwestern states, with both serving as major logistics and distribution hubs.
- Illinois (19.2 percent), New Jersey (18.1 percent), and South Carolina (16.6 percent) import oil, communications equipment, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals from a variety of international partners.
More rural or service-driven states like South Dakota (2.2 percent), Nebraska (3.2 percent), and Wyoming (3.9 percent) have much lower import-to-GDP ratios, indicating a greater reliance on domestic production and local demand, according to Evangelou.
Some states appear on both lists, marking them “as real trade powerhouses,” Evangelou said. These economies are deeply integrated into global supply chains on both ends. Here are the top trade powerhouses:
- Kentucky is No. 1 in imports and No. 3 in exports due to its manufacturing logistics;
- Texas is No. 2 in exports and No. 9 in imports. This is largely attributed to oil, technology, and its strategic position along the U.S.-Mexico border.
- Indiana, Michigan, and South Carolina also prominently feature in both categories.
“These states are more likely to experience the ripple effects of global supply chain shifts, both positive and negative,” Evangelou said. “A surge in global demand supports their growth, while disruptions, such as factory shutdowns overseas or sudden tariffs, can present challenges as well.”
Trade and the housing market
Evangelou noted that trade also factors heavily into the labor and housing markets.
Thousands of jobs are “directly and indirectly connected to global business,” Evangelou said. “However, data indicate that the employment effects of trade policies are multifaceted and vary significantly across states, influenced by each state’s economic composition and the specific industries present.”
While trade-dependent states like Texas and Michigan may experience more fluctuations in their job markets due to trade policy changes, Evangelou said less trade-reliant states may see more stable employment. She added that since 1994, when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into effect, states with lower trade reliance have experienced stronger job growth.
The low trade-reliant states, where exports accounted for less than 7 percent of GDP, saw an average job growth of 39 percent. High trade-reliant states, meanwhile, had an average job growth of 32 percent.
States like Nevada (113 percent), Utah (102 percent), and Arizona (91 percent) doubled their jobs since 1994, despite having relatively modest trade footprints. Texas was the only high-trade state to make it into the top 10 for job growth, adding 81 percent more jobs over the last three decades, according to Evangelou.
On the housing market front, Evangelou said home prices have increased more rapidly in states that were less reliant on trade. Low trade-reliant states experienced an average home price rise of 291 percent, while high trade-reliant states lagged behind with an average of 237 percent. States like Florida (406 percent home price rise), Washington (379 percent), and Colorado (377 percent), which have more modest export footprints, saw the most significant housing appreciation.
People and income ultimately drive housing markets. The states that led in home price growth were often those with rapid job growth in tech and services, high levels of domestic migration, and limited housing supply or zoning constraints, Evangelou said.
Meanwhile, states with smaller export shares are less vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and often attract knowledge economy jobs or retirees, boosting housing demand in urban and suburban areas. Dallas, Houston, Charleston, and Phoenix developed as major logistics hubs. However, Evangelou said the broader data suggests that trade wasn’t the only factor that elevated housing markets consistently.
“If the last 30 years have taught us anything, it is that the housing market thrives where people want to live and work, not merely where goods are produced or shipped,” Evangelou said.