The Northeast has the largest concentration of the counties most vulnerable to adverse housing impacts of the coronavirus, according to a report from ATTOM Data Solutions.
The report there are large clusters of at-risk counties in New Jersey and Florida, and the least at-risk counties are in the West and Midwest.
ATTOM said markets are considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of housing units that received a foreclosure notice in the fourth quarter of 2019, the percent of homes underwater (LTV 100 or greater) in the fourth quarter, and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses.
According to the report, 14 of New Jersey’s 21 counties are among the 50 most vulnerable in the country, four in New York, three in Connecticut and 10 from Florida.
“It’s too early to tell how much effect the coronavirus fallout will have on different housing markets around the country. But the impact is likely to be significant from region to region and county to county,” ATTOM Chief Product officer Todd Teta said in a release.
“What we’ve done is spotlight areas that appear to be more or less at risk based on several important factors,” Teta said. “From that analysis, it looks like the Northeast is more at risk than other areas. As we head into the spring home buying season, the next few months will reveal how severe the impact will be.”
In total, New Jersey and Florida have 24 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. The 14 counties in New Jersey include five in the New York City metropolitan area: Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Middlesex and Union counties.
The 10 most at-risk counties in Florida are concentrated in the northern and central sections of the state, including Flagler, Lake, Clay, Hernando and Osceola counties.
ATTOM said New York counties among the Top 50 most at-risk include Rockland County, Orange County, Rensselaer County, and Ulster County. Other counties in the top 50 most at-risk are spread across Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana and Virginia.
The report said Texas has 10 of the 50 least vulnerable counties, followed by Wisconsin with seven and Colorado with five. Eighteen of the 50 least at-risk counties have a population of at least 500,000, including Harris County (Houston); Dallas County, Texas; King County (Seattle); Tarrant County, Texas; and Santa Clara County, Calif.