Auction.com, LLC, an online real estate marketplace, released its latest Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast, projecting existing home sales for the month of August will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.46 and 5.86 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.64 million – up 1 percent from July and 12.9 percent from a year ago. That would be the strongest year-over-year gain in nearly two years.
“We may be looking at the beginning of a shift in existing home sales activity,” Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said. “The volume of sales, while continuing to increase, appears to be slowing down. And home prices, which have consistently appreciated over the past few years, may finally be leveling off.”
Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its existing home sales data for July, reporting that home sales were at 5.59 million units, up 10.3 percent year-over-year and in line with Auction.com’s Nowcast point estimate of 5.57 million units – a prediction that beat the consensus estimate calling for a 1.6 percent decline to 5.40 million units.
“Limited inventory of homes for sale – especially entry level homes for first-time home buyers – will make it hard for the market to reach higher numbers in 2015,” Sharga noted. “This is true for both existing home sales and new home sales, where inventory is improving, but still near a 40-year low.”
NAR also reported a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices July to $234,000, just 5.1 percent off of the peak level and up nearly 36 percent from the trough. This number was well within the range of $227,170 and $251,082 that Auction.com predicted last month.
Findings from the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall to between $219,132 and $242,199 in the month of August, with a targeted price of $230,666. This represents a 1.4 percent month-over-month decrease, but a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase for the month.