Ten-X released its Top Single-Family Housing Markets Report for Summer 2016, which ranks the nation’s 50 largest housing markets according to current and forecasted housing fundamentals. Palm Beach County, Orlando, Tampa, and Fort Lauderdale in Florida, along with Seattle, made up the top five markets, each demonstrating consistently strong demand, home price appreciation and economic and demographic growth.
In spite of Florida’s exposure to the housing bust, the state’s top metros are enjoying robust recoveries driven by favorable affordability scenarios, subdued permit activity, revitalized local economies, and strong population growth trending well above the national average, the report found. On the opposite coast, Seattle continues to represent the tech-driven gains of the Pacific Northwest along with Portland, Ore., now ranked as the ninth-hottest market.
The new rankings reflect a bit of movement compared with Ten-X’s Spring single-family market rankings, with Palm Beach jumping from fourth place up to first, Orlando from sixth to second and Tampa from 11th to third, while Fort Lauderdale slipped down from fifth to fourth and Seattle from the top spot down to fifth.
“There are strong regional tendencies in our summer housing market report, with cities in the Southeast, the Pacific Northwest, and California performing exceptionally well, while the Northeast and Midwest are lagging behind,” Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said in a press release. “Cities like Orlando are receiving a boost from low oil prices, which in turn is leading to an increase in travel and tourism. And of all the states that were hit hard during the crash, Florida still has the most room to grow to get back to peak housing prices.”
“Despite the muddled economic environment, conditions remain generally supportive for the housing market,” Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio said. “Home sales had some volatility early in the year, brought on by new regulations and harsh weather, but appear to be stabilizing even with tight inventory levels. More jobs are being added while unemployment continues to drop and low mortgage rates are enticing homebuyers, so solid demand should continue to fuel the housing market.”
Top Market Highlights
Palm Beach County’s housing market has seasonally adjusted home prices up 16.8 percent year-over-year, the highest pace in the country, while quarterly gains have exceeded 3 percent in each of the past seven quarters. Prices are at a cyclical high after eclipsing $260,000 this quarter but still 14 percent below their pre-recession peak, suggesting additional room to run. Employment is also at an all-time high, with jobs up 2.4 percent from a year ago.
Orlando’s housing market has recovered at an impressive clip. Seasonally adjusted home prices have increased for 19 consecutive quarters, and despite a mediocre first quarter, prices are up 10.4 percent year-over-year. The metro’s largest sector, leisure and hospitality, grew 5.5 percent from last year and is likewise at a peak level, as persistent low oil prices helped lower airfares and travel expenses, boosting admissions to Walt Disney World and other area attractions.
Tampa’s economy continues its rapid expansion, with 29 consecutive months of job gains, as employment remains 5.4 percent higher than its year-ago level. Tampa's single-family market has seen prices soar since bottoming out in 2011, now up 12.1 percent year-over-year. With home sales up 4.5 percent and strong affordability continuing to support further price growth, the housing market's favorable affordability scenario over apartments is enabling additional homebuyer demand.
Fort Lauderdale has mounted a strong recovery from its recessionary fall. Seasonally adjusted home prices are charging ahead, up 8.9 percent year-over-year, though they remain 18.5 percent below their prior peak. Payrolls are at an all-time high, posting a 3.9 percent year-over-year gain this past month, with unemployment nearing a cyclical low at 4.5 percent.
The single-family market in Seattle is still sizzling, with home prices surging 15.4 percent year-over-year and now hitting an all-time high, eclipsing $450,000. Home sales are 10.8 percent higher than a year ago as well, posting gains in seven of the last eight quarters. Ever since the end of the recession, Seattle's economy has proven itself a model of success with metro payrolls up 3.8 percent from a year ago and still climbing.