A new report from RealtyTrac of more than 1,500 counties nationwide showed favorable signs in housing should favor incumbents running for office in close U.S. Senate races.
The 2014 Election Housing Scorecard report showed that of the 811 county housing markets, 52 percent were found to be “better off” than two years ago, with 11 percent “worse off” and the remaining 36 percent a “toss-up.”
“The housing market recovery has truly taken hold in about half of the country, but the recovery is weak or experiencing a relapse in the other half,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, in a release announcing the report. “Whether because of good government policy, sheer luck or otherwise, the majority of county housing markets in six of the eight states with close U.S. Senate races are better off than they were two years ago. This should favor the incumbent, or the incumbent’s party, all else being equal — which of course we know it is not. The only exceptions were Iowa and Alaska, where the majority of county housing markets were classified as toss-ups compared with two years ago.”
RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard looked at the likely outcome of eight highly contested Senate races: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.
In Georgia, 70 percent of the counties studied were “better off,” with 6.3 percent “worse off.” RealtyTrac said this would favor the Republican incumbent party to win, with incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss retiring to open a seat.
In North Carolina, 79.5 percent of the counties studied were “better off,” with 6 percent “worse off.” This would favor the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Kay Hagan.
In Colorado, 94.3 percent of the counties studied were “better off,” and none were “worse off.” Again, RealtyTrac said this would favor the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Mark Udall.
Louisiana results showed two-thirds of the parishes studied as “better off,” and none “worse off.” This would point to the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Mary L. Landrieu.
Iowa was a toss-up, RealtyTrac said. Only seven counties had sufficient data to score – one was “
better off,” two were “worse off” and the other four were “toss-ups.” This race is to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.
Arkansas saw eight of its nine eligible counties rated as “better off,” favoring the Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor despite polls showing his Republican challenger Tom Cotton in the lead.
Kansas had 21 of its 22 eligible counties rated as “better off,” favoring Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, who is trailing independent Greg Orman in at least one recent poll.
Finally, Alaska came out as a toss-up. With only three counties to study, one was “better off” and two were “toss-ups.”
The report scored markets based on up to five factors impacting housing health: housing affordability compared to two years ago, unemployment rates compared to two years ago, foreclosure starts compared to two years ago, median home prices compared to two years ago, and the percentage seriously underwater homeowners. A county had to have at least three of the five factors to receive a score, and scores were weighted accordingly if only three or four of the five factors were available.